Russian, Canadian escalation in the Arctic; smaller powers sandwiched as geopolitics returns to Scandinavia

A low level tension is brewing between Russia and Canada, the two main contenders it seems for Arctic presence. Where is the relationship heading? Towards an all out race for the Pole with military presence and fierce rhetoric’s? Or towards a Russia and Canada alliance increasingly cutting deals bilaterally. Or perhaps a little bit of both? Signals from both sides of the Arctic are mixed, both claiming to be the Arctic superpower.
In either case, the situation for smaller powers like Denmark and Norway, sandwiched in between the two of them, is quite a dilemma. Either we are forced to choose sides or we are let out of the deal making. In both cases, it resembles cold war situations. Only this time, pacifist Canada is moving up as the Russian counter power.
It's going to challenge past thinking about geography and its implications for how national interest is perceived. While the Western nations have more in common on probably all areas, geography still counts. Russia is just across the Norwegian border while Canada is a continent away. But since the ice cap is melting all the Arctic nations (Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway and the US) have launched claims of certain sectors of the Arctic Ocean. So we're all neighbors.
And investments matters too. Norway has issues with Russia over natural resources and borders in potentially energy rich areas. But probably as important, Norwegian industry is a major investor in Russia. The state owned Norwegian petroleum giant, Statoil, is eager to be part of the development of Russian oil and gas fields to ensure growth and investments in an era when North Sea oil epoch is over. Statoil is already a partner (24%) in the giant Russian Stockman oil field in the Barents Sea and it is also in talks about investing in the Sakhalin gas field.
Conversely, Statoil is a major investor in the environmentally controversial oil sand excavations in Canada with its acquisition of North American Oil Sands Corporation last year. So, for now the Norwegian government has put its eggs in the baskets of the two major contenders for the North Pole race, it seems.
Nato will again regain some of its prominence for its Northern members. The ongoing Canadian military exercise in the north will in effect fly Nato’s flag in that part of the Arctic. That umbrella may provide unity in the West and safety and support for its smaller members. The future of Nato therefore is perhaps not as much hinged on its successes (or failures) in far off places like Afghanistan, but perhaps in the northern backyard of the Arctic.
Meanwhile China waits in the wings to take advantage of the Arctic’s natural resources and not least a possible northern seaway to Europe. The trade route may pass Norwegian and Danish waters and ports with a number of safety and environmental implications. Trade with China/Asia, the natural resources of the Arctic blended with the complex climate issues will again put smaller nations like Norway and Denmark at the coal face of global issues. For a small and peaceful corner of Europe, the message is clear, geopolitics is firmly back.
National issues of international relations, defense and national security cannot be seen in isolation from this groundbreaking development. The past emphasis on our humanitarian mission, values, development and peacekeeping issues will have to compete with this increasingly assertive realist agenda. The change is slowly coming, but the reality has not yet dawned upon us.