"En overveldende fare truer" (2002)

Hezbollas styrkeoppbygging i Libanon som del av Irans destabilisernde plan har lenge vært advart mot av observatører.

Kom over en kommentarartikkel av Dennis Ross i WSJ fra juni 2002, merk datoen. Her er det meste av artikkelen, analysen er god. Publisert på på The Washington Institute her. Dennis Ross er en erfaring og respektert diplomat og slett ingen hauk.

Hvorfor er dette strategiske oversiktsbildet så og si helt borte fra den norske debatten?

Dennis Ross skriver i 2002:

I am struck by a burgeoning danger that is receiving scant attention. With
a constant stream of supply from both the Iranians and Syrians, Hezbollah is
building a formidable arsenal of highly mobile rockets.

Longer-range Katyushas are the mainstay of the arsenal, but the Syrians are
supplementing these weapons with the Syrian 270 mm rocket.
What makes these rockets so potentially de-stabilizing is their range. The
rockets Hezbollah used to possess could only threaten the immediate border area
of northern Israel. While bad enough from an Israeli perspective, the new
rockets have ranges stretching over 70 kilometers. Israel's industrial area
below Haifa will now be within the sights of Hezbollah rocketeers. Does anyone
think Israel will tolerate such attacks?

Hafez Assad was no slouch when it came to threatening Israel. But he
controlled the flow of Iranian arms to Hezbollah, and he never provided Syrian
weapons directly. He certainly did not mind Hezbollah keeping the pressure on
Israel, but he was not about to let Hezbollah drag him into a war with Israel
either.

But Bashar Assad seems to lack his father's sense of limits. As if
providing weapons to Hezbollah was not enough, he is also procuring spare parts
for Iraq from Eastern Europe. That's something new: His father sought Saddam
Hussein's demise, not his strengthening.

What could the younger Mr. Assad be thinking? The logic is difficult to grasp unless one looks at the increasingly close connection he has been developing with Hezbollah and Iran. Iranian officials routinely stop in Damascus both before and after visiting Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah. Iran is pushing Hezbollah to cooperate more with Hamas in the war against Israel. Recently, the Israelis have arrested Hezbollah operatives in the West Bank.

Iran is also pushing Hamas very hard to continue the suicide bombings in
Israel. As I heard from Israelis and Palestinians, recent efforts by the
Palestinian Authority officials in Gaza to convince Hamas to stop terror attacks
against Israelis appeared to be making headway until the Hamas leadership in
Gaza got explicit instructions from the Hamas leadership outside—with
considerable Iranian pressure—to persist with the bombings. The same was true
for the Islamic Jihad, whose leader Ramadan Shallah resides in Damascus and was
equally insistent that the bombing must continue.

Iran and Syria clearly want the conflict to continue between Israelis and Palestinians. Perhaps they believe Israel will lose its resolve and gradually be weakened to the point of collapse.

While plausible, neither of these explanations can account for the buildup
of longer-range rockets in southern Lebanon. Perhaps here we can see another
connection to their fears of American military action to replace Saddam. Just as
Saddam tried to transform the war in 1991 away from being the international
community against Iraq into an Arab-Israeli conflict, it is possible that Iran,
Syria and Hezbollah believe that a second front must be opened up once the U.S.
begins to act against Saddam. If they cannot head the action off, they might
hope to make it more difficult to sustain with a second front.

What can be done to avert the opening of a second front, with dangerous escalating
possibilities? A good place to start is by recognizing the danger and beginning
to call attention to it. This may be most helpful in Lebanon. Hezbollah could
justify its war against Israel and gain considerable support from Lebanese when
the Israelis occupied southern Lebanon. But they withdrew, and Hezbollah
received enormous credit for driving the Israelis out. They won't receive much
now if they provoke Israeli responses that are likely to make all Lebanese
suffer.

On the contrary, Hezbollah could easily threaten its Lebanese agenda
if it looks like it is now serving non-Lebanese interests. Already, Lebanese
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has been critical of Hezbollah; the Europeans,
Egyptians and Saudis could do much to reinforce that criticism.